Credit Matters

Property Cycle Clocks

Current Forecast

Due: Jan 2019

7 months late

Cycle: 15 years

Property 2004

Due: Jan 2004

Occurred: Jan 2004

As predicted

Cycle: 15 years

Property 1989

Due: Jan 1989

Occurred: Jan 1989

As predicted

Cycle: 15 years

Property 1974

Due: Jan 1966

Occurred: Jan 1974

8 years late

Cycle: 15 years

About Our Property Cycle Clocks

CM Property Cycle Clock

In the United States and in many Western countries, along with China, the average time between property cycles peaks & troughs is 18 years -  Reference https://www.theepochtimes.com/economists-explain-why-our-economy-crashes-every-18-years_2000510.html

In this article it was noted:

“With the exception of World War II, the peak of most real estate cycles is roughly every 18 years,” Hanke wrote. He shows this has remained mostly consistent over the last 200 years with property value peaks in 1818, 1836, 1854, 1872, 1890, 1907, 1925, 1973, 1979, 1989, and 2006.

Based on this reference, it is suggested that based on the GFC crises of 2007, the next global property crisis will be around 2019.

In Australia – Property Cycles

In Australia Shane Oliver believes that the average cycle appears to around three to four years over the last 15 years.

PeriodNoteDuration
(boon to downturn)
1870s-80she 1870s-80s mining boom (which gave birth to BHP, Rio and many others) turned into the 1880s housing construction and lending boom which collapsed in the bank bad debt crash in the early1890s, triggering a deep economic depression.10 - 15 years
1960sThe 1960s mining boom turned into the early 1970s housing construction and lending boom which collapsed in the property finance crash in 1973-1974, triggering the deep 1974-1976 recession.10 - 12 years
1980sThe early 1980s ‘mini-resources boom’ expanded into the mid-1980s ‘entrepreneurial boom’ which after the 1987 crash turned into the late 1980s construction and lending boom which collapsed in the bank bad debt crisis in the ’recession we had to have’ in 1990-199110 years


Source: https://cuffelinks.com.au/housing-construction-long-last/

Disclaimer

Credit Matters has developed the ‘CM Land Cycle Clock’ to assist our business community with forecasting and acting on the variety of land cycles – to minimise or even avoid a pending financial upheaval. The foresight gained by this information is a great advantage over the alternative; that being merely waiting for the tragedy to materialise, which is akin to “burying your head in the sand” and wondering what went wrong once immersed in devastation. 

As invaluable as it is, the ‘CM Land Cycle Clock’ (CMLC Clock) only provides a general estimate of when a dire land cycle might occur. The information is not to be taken as a fixed time frame or estimate of a current or future occurrence; nor its cause. Therefore, it is not to be blindly relied upon. Instead, professional advice should be sought if you’re doubtful about any aspect.

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